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Alhaji Abubakar Atiku and his party the PDP have already achieved something that would have been considered highly improbable just a few weeks ago-transformed the 2019 presidential elections into a real competitive context with the incumbent President Muhamadu Buhari. From the beginning of 2018, my analysis and scenario building ascribed a probability of 65 per cent to Buhari retaining the presidency-not an eventuality I considered desirable by any means whatsoever, but one that seemed inevitable for most of this year! I have since revised my calculations, and I now think the 2019 battle is a 50:50 affair between Atiku and Buhari! The fact that Buhari even stands any chance of victory is not a good commentary on Nigeria and our political system. Indeed the fact that he could be elected in 2015 in spite of a record unambiguously comprised of tendencies towards dictatorship, (of a draconian type); incompetence in policy, economy and administration; abandonment, if not complete